Box Office Analyst's Forecast: THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN And THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
Box Office Analyst®, the leading source of analytical information that drives decision making in the movie exhibition and distribution industry, announces today its projections for the third quarter of 2012, including blockbusters THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN and surprise TED.
“After animated hits such as MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE’S MOST WANTED and BRAVE, it’s now the superheroes’ turn to ‘kapow’ box office records when Batman and Spider-Man leap off the screens in July,” said Doug Stone, president of Box Office Analyst. “We’ll finish the second quarter of 2012 up approximately seven percent for the year, compared to the end of the second quarter of 2011, which is a positive result, considering how strong the second frame was last year.”
The third quarter of 2012 flies on to screens when Columbia Pictures’ THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN, opens on July 3. Starring Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, this version of Spider-Man should collect nearly $325 million from its theatrical run in U.S. theatres, according to Box Office Analyst. In this adaptation, Spider-Man/Peter Parker (Garfield) finds a clue that might help him understand why his parents disappeared when he was young. His path puts him on a collision course with Dr. Curt Connors, his father’s former partner, all while navigating the relationship road with high school sweetheart Gwen Stacy (Stone).
While the web-slinging superhero will enjoy a short run atop the box office, THE DARK KNIGHT RISES should take over when it debuts on July 20. The latest installment of the franchise from Director Christopher Nolan and Warner Bros. Pictures should earn slightly more than $400 million from ticket sales in the United States, according to Box Office Analyst. It stars Christian Bale as Batman/Bruce Wayne, Anne Hathaway as Selina Kyle/Catwoman, Tom Hardy as villain Bane and features Michael Caine, Liam Neeson, Morgan Freeman and Gary Oldman. If it picks up steam, it has a chance to reach $500 million at the box office, just like its predecessor, THE DARK KNIGHT in 2008.
Hot on the heels of the animated hits MADAGASCAR 3 and BRAVE, which propelled the box office through the end of the second quarter in June, Manny, Diego, Sid and Ellie are back on July 13 in ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT from 20th Century Fox. Ray Romano (Manny), Denis Leary (Diego), John Leguizamo (Sid) and Queen Latifah (Ellie) reprise their characters’ voices and embark upon another adventure when their continent is set adrift and they use an iceberg as their ship. The resulting laughs from this family movie will most likely mean the fourth installment of this franchise takes in just about $150 million at the box office, making it number one at the box office for one week until THE DARK KNIGHT RISES in theatres on July 20.
Like ICE AGE, one would think a movie about a teddy bear released in the summer would be a family affair, but that’s definitely not the case when Universal Pictures’ TED also opens on July 13. Box Office Analyst predicts that the offbeat TED will be a surprise movie of the third quarter. Starring Mark Wahlberg and Mila Kunis, the movie is stolen by the hilariously inappropriate teddy bear named Ted, voiced by of Director Seth MacFarlane, creator of the television show “Family Guy.” TED just might cross the $100-million threshold at the box office, according to Stone, who foresees the colorful comedy making at least $90 million.
TOTAL RECALL from TriStar Pictures is a remake of the 1990 film of the same name that starred Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sharon Stone and made almost $120 million in its U.S. theatrical run. This new version opens Aug. 3 and features Colin Farrell as Doug Quaid, a factory worker with a beautiful wife Lori, played by Kate Beckinsale. Quaid takes a mind-altering vacation from his real life only to find that the technical procedure went horribly wrong and he’s thrown into the life of a hunted spy. Box Office Analyst spies a domestic box office gross of approximately $90 million for the TOTAL RECALL reprise.
TOTAL RECALL isn’t the only spy movie of August. And Jason Bourne wasn’t the only spy created by Operation Treadstone. THE BOURNE LEGACY introduces you to Aaron Cross, a new hero with ties to the secret program that hatched Bourne. Starring Jeremy Renner as Cross, Rachel Weisz and Edward Norton, this is the fourth installment from Universal Pictures based on the writings of popular spy novelist Robert Ludlum and premiers on Aug. 10. While it’s up against fellow action/adventure/spy movie TOTAL RECALL that opens the week before, THE BOURNE LEGACY should collect close to $120 million from Bourne fans.
In the second quarter of 2012, Stone’s predictions for Box Office Analyst were 85-percent correct, with an accurate prediction on air during his CBS television segment that MADAGASDAR 3 would beat out PROMETHEUS on its opening weekend. Those animated animals defeated the aliens by $9 million at the box office on its opening weekend of June 8-10, with MADAGASCAR 3 making $60.3 million compared to $51.2 million for PROMETHEUS.
While the 2012 overall box office is up seven percent over last year at this time, the second quarter 2012 results were two percent below the same quarter in 2011, according to Box Office Analyst’s data.
“The trick will be to hold on to that seven-percent lead through the third quarter and pick up some steam in the fourth,” said Stone. “Last year’s fourth quarter was disappointing, yet right now it looks like there is enough firepower in the studios’ armory to fuel a strong finish to the year.”
About Box Office Analyst
Box Office Analyst, LLC provides a comprehensive service to the movie industry, including making long- and short-range projections, providing updated movie release schedules and unique analytic services. The company’s analytical approach is fueled by using statistical analysis and historic patterns to measure revenues as opposed to simply guessing based on gut feel. The Box Office Analyst Report, founded in 1982 and originally published under the name Movieline International, is a data-centric publication that provides unique, relevant and actionable information to film professionals and others interested in the performance of movies at the box office. www.boxofficeanalyst.com
So, this is pretty awesome. Of course, nothing is final as it still early, and A LOT of things can change, just like with The Hunger Games and The Avengers. But, if these estimates hold up, we will have two more comic book movies doing fantastic at the box office. In May, Marvel's The Avengers was a record-breaking hit, and while The Amazing Spider-Man is not going for the opening weekend record (since it will debut on Tuesday), The Dark Knight Rises has a big chance at setting a new record. Also, all the numbers above are just for US, without international estimates. Both Batman and Spider-Man should do great overseas though. All in all, this is shaping up to be one hell of year for comic book movies.
Source: Box Office Analyst®
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