Box Office Analyst's Forecast: THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN And THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

Box Office Analyst® have issued a press release for their 2012 third quarter forecast, and one thing is for sure: both The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises. will do big business. More after the jump...

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By WolvieCBM - 6/29/2012

PRESS RELEASE

Box Office Analyst®, the leading source of analytical information that drives decision making in the movie exhibition and distribution industry, announces today its projections for the third quarter of 2012, including blockbusters THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN and surprise TED.

“After animated hits such as MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE’S MOST WANTED and BRAVE, it’s now the superheroes’ turn to ‘kapow’ box office records when Batman and Spider-Man leap off the screens in July,” said Doug Stone, president of Box Office Analyst. “We’ll finish the second quarter of 2012 up approximately seven percent for the year, compared to the end of the second quarter of 2011, which is a positive result, considering how strong the second frame was last year.”

The third quarter of 2012 flies on to screens when Columbia Pictures’ THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN, opens on July 3. Starring Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, this version of Spider-Man should collect nearly $325 million from its theatrical run in U.S. theatres, according to Box Office Analyst. In this adaptation, Spider-Man/Peter Parker (Garfield) finds a clue that might help him understand why his parents disappeared when he was young. His path puts him on a collision course with Dr. Curt Connors, his father’s former partner, all while navigating the relationship road with high school sweetheart Gwen Stacy (Stone).

While the web-slinging superhero will enjoy a short run atop the box office, THE DARK KNIGHT RISES should take over when it debuts on July 20. The latest installment of the franchise from Director Christopher Nolan and Warner Bros. Pictures should earn slightly more than $400 million from ticket sales in the United States, according to Box Office Analyst. It stars Christian Bale as Batman/Bruce Wayne, Anne Hathaway as Selina Kyle/Catwoman, Tom Hardy as villain Bane and features Michael Caine, Liam Neeson, Morgan Freeman and Gary Oldman. If it picks up steam, it has a chance to reach $500 million at the box office, just like its predecessor, THE DARK KNIGHT in 2008.

Hot on the heels of the animated hits MADAGASCAR 3 and BRAVE, which propelled the box office through the end of the second quarter in June, Manny, Diego, Sid and Ellie are back on July 13 in ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT from 20th Century Fox. Ray Romano (Manny), Denis Leary (Diego), John Leguizamo (Sid) and Queen Latifah (Ellie) reprise their characters’ voices and embark upon another adventure when their continent is set adrift and they use an iceberg as their ship. The resulting laughs from this family movie will most likely mean the fourth installment of this franchise takes in just about $150 million at the box office, making it number one at the box office for one week until THE DARK KNIGHT RISES in theatres on July 20.

Like ICE AGE, one would think a movie about a teddy bear released in the summer would be a family affair, but that’s definitely not the case when Universal Pictures’ TED also opens on July 13. Box Office Analyst predicts that the offbeat TED will be a surprise movie of the third quarter. Starring Mark Wahlberg and Mila Kunis, the movie is stolen by the hilariously inappropriate teddy bear named Ted, voiced by of Director Seth MacFarlane, creator of the television show “Family Guy.” TED just might cross the $100-million threshold at the box office, according to Stone, who foresees the colorful comedy making at least $90 million.

TOTAL RECALL from TriStar Pictures is a remake of the 1990 film of the same name that starred Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sharon Stone and made almost $120 million in its U.S. theatrical run. This new version opens Aug. 3 and features Colin Farrell as Doug Quaid, a factory worker with a beautiful wife Lori, played by Kate Beckinsale. Quaid takes a mind-altering vacation from his real life only to find that the technical procedure went horribly wrong and he’s thrown into the life of a hunted spy. Box Office Analyst spies a domestic box office gross of approximately $90 million for the TOTAL RECALL reprise.

TOTAL RECALL isn’t the only spy movie of August. And Jason Bourne wasn’t the only spy created by Operation Treadstone. THE BOURNE LEGACY introduces you to Aaron Cross, a new hero with ties to the secret program that hatched Bourne. Starring Jeremy Renner as Cross, Rachel Weisz and Edward Norton, this is the fourth installment from Universal Pictures based on the writings of popular spy novelist Robert Ludlum and premiers on Aug. 10. While it’s up against fellow action/adventure/spy movie TOTAL RECALL that opens the week before, THE BOURNE LEGACY should collect close to $120 million from Bourne fans.

In the second quarter of 2012, Stone’s predictions for Box Office Analyst were 85-percent correct, with an accurate prediction on air during his CBS television segment that MADAGASDAR 3 would beat out PROMETHEUS on its opening weekend. Those animated animals defeated the aliens by $9 million at the box office on its opening weekend of June 8-10, with MADAGASCAR 3 making $60.3 million compared to $51.2 million for PROMETHEUS.

While the 2012 overall box office is up seven percent over last year at this time, the second quarter 2012 results were two percent below the same quarter in 2011, according to Box Office Analyst’s data.

“The trick will be to hold on to that seven-percent lead through the third quarter and pick up some steam in the fourth,” said Stone. “Last year’s fourth quarter was disappointing, yet right now it looks like there is enough firepower in the studios’ armory to fuel a strong finish to the year.”

About Box Office Analyst

Box Office Analyst, LLC provides a comprehensive service to the movie industry, including making long- and short-range projections, providing updated movie release schedules and unique analytic services. The company’s analytical approach is fueled by using statistical analysis and historic patterns to measure revenues as opposed to simply guessing based on gut feel. The Box Office Analyst Report, founded in 1982 and originally published under the name Movieline International, is a data-centric publication that provides unique, relevant and actionable information to film professionals and others interested in the performance of movies at the box office. www.boxofficeanalyst.com

So, this is pretty awesome. Of course, nothing is final as it still early, and A LOT of things can change, just like with The Hunger Games and The Avengers. But, if these estimates hold up, we will have two more comic book movies doing fantastic at the box office. In May, Marvel's The Avengers was a record-breaking hit, and while The Amazing Spider-Man is not going for the opening weekend record (since it will debut on Tuesday), The Dark Knight Rises has a big chance at setting a new record. Also, all the numbers above are just for US, without international estimates. Both Batman and Spider-Man should do great overseas though. All in all, this is shaping up to be one hell of year for comic book movies.

Source: Box Office Analyst®

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98 Comments

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	ksommer - 6/29/2012, 10:15 AM Login to report abuse So only $400m for TDKR... That seems low. I think it'll hit $500 million
	WolvieCBM - 6/29/2012, 10:18 AM Login to report abuse ksommer: These are conservative estimate (like always). $500M should happen.
	Zorrgoth - 6/29/2012, 10:25 AM Login to report abuse these movies will rock
	GoILL - 6/29/2012, 10:25 AM Login to report abuse Both will do well at the box office.
	Supes17 - 6/29/2012, 10:26 AM Login to report abuse yeah they are always wrong... About Avatar, about Avengers....lol
	DanteSparda - 6/29/2012, 10:31 AM Login to report abuse
	Ghostfire - 6/29/2012, 10:31 AM Login to report abuse Time will only tell. If we have 3 successful CBM's in one summer that alone will tell hollywood the CBM's are here to stay.
	HorrorBiz - 6/29/2012, 10:34 AM Login to report abuse I suppose it's smart of them to be modest about how much money TDKR will make. They also said The Avengers would make only just above $400 million and that was obviously proven wrong.
	Ranger14 - 6/29/2012, 10:35 AM Login to report abuse Both should do well at the Box Office. I expect TDKR to push the billion mark, considering it is the finale of a trilogy that is widely recognized.
	NOID - 6/29/2012, 10:37 AM Login to report abuse i think it'll be over 400 but i wouldn't be disappointed... If word of mouth is good, which i know it will be, well it'll do just fine.
	DukeAcureds - 6/29/2012, 10:41 AM Login to report abuse The Dark Knight Rises will not collect nearly as much as the rest of this year's comic book ovies as it will not be released in 3D. Looks like Avengers is keeping the top spot, there.
	Hawksblueyes - 6/29/2012, 10:42 AM Login to report abuse Ranger14: I think TASM will do about the same, if not better. EVERYBODY loves Spidey and he is just about the most "family friendly" super hero around.
	SageMode - 6/29/2012, 10:49 AM Login to report abuse I have a feeling that TASM is gonna outgross TDKR.
	soforizo - 6/29/2012, 10:50 AM Login to report abuse TDKR has the widest release in IMAX and a long one at that, so it should do pretty good. I'm looking at $600+ million domestic
	95 - 6/29/2012, 10:50 AM Login to report abuse Too conservative.
	TheJoshider - 6/29/2012, 10:53 AM Login to report abuse if you ask me, the dark knight rises will be the best superhero film this year, but not earn as much as the avengers, which i personally believe is one of the most overhyped films of the year. the amazing spiderman will have tons of critics, but the hardcore spidey fans will rate it as an amazing film. it will earn a large amount but less than the previous 2 films mentioned. my premature opinions on the films: TDKR- will be my favourite if not then it will be TASM, and i hope it does better than the previous nolan batman films TASM- will be my favourite if TDKR does not pass my expectations, and i will be looking at the relationship between peter and gwen as my main favourite part. if this part of the film isnt good, the movie means nothing to me. the avengers- an average film, with an average plot, but with tons of heroes and the film only came alive for me in the last 20-30 minutes. before then i didnt care at all about anything that happened. a bit like the pointless love interest in alien3 which i gave no care about.
	Nubase - 6/29/2012, 10:54 AM Login to report abuse @DoubleD Batman Begins and The Dark Knight was also dark and featured people dying and look how successfull those movies were. Nolans Batman is aimed at the older generation as well as kids if they are old enough to be allowed in to watch it. And here in the UK the imax tickets from July 20th till the end of August is almost sold out as l have tried to buy more tickets in august. it not worth making excuses to for this movie to fail, the fact it that it won't fail and remember The Dark Knight was the FIRST CBM to break the billion doller mark, so the target is not for this movie to do that again, its to finish off the story in a epic way.
	sinchsw - 6/29/2012, 10:57 AM Login to report abuse I agree with Wolvie. I think Dark Knight Rises will arrive just under Avengers. Should be a good run. Spiderman will likely be just under Batman by a bit more.
	Greengo - 6/29/2012, 10:57 AM Login to report abuse I've got a feeling TDKR will beat TASM. As prev stated: end of series vs. premature reboot. We shall see.
	fceeviper - 6/29/2012, 10:58 AM Login to report abuse Both will make that $ It's good to be a CB movie fan!
	SpiderBob - 6/29/2012, 10:58 AM Login to report abuse Just seen TASM twice today and it blew me away,once in IMAX 3D and once in 2D....incredible,only niggle I had was maybe a jump in story but it didn't really bother....finally a proper Spidey flick...can't wait for the next one and TDKR.
	BigHec - 6/29/2012, 10:58 AM Login to report abuse Batman would make about 500 Million U.S,and will be #4 on the highest grossing movie list right next to Avengers and I see Spidey making about close to 400...either win DC/Marvel took over Hollywood this year...CBM for life
	MoonDoggyX - 6/29/2012, 10:59 AM Login to report abuse @WolvieCBM and starscream9289 - If any good came out of Prometheus, it is that it make for some cool avatars! I have little doubt that TDKR will be the Best movie movie this year! Between Nolan directing and the actors involved, its almost a sure thing. I personally wasn't as impressed with TDK as a lot of people(too long). I wouldn't even say its in my top 5 CBMs. But after I saw Inception(Jawdropping!), I believe in Chris Nolan! With that said, I seriously doubt that TDKR will make Avengers money... Hell, I'd honestly be surprised if it breaks a billion. And, if anyone honestly thinks that TDK performed so well just because it was good, you're fooling yourself. I see it making about, if not a little more, than Inception. If memory serves, that's a little more than $800 million. Impressive nontheless...
	Greengo - 6/29/2012, 11:01 AM Login to report abuse @Nubase: it's like that for IMAX here in the US too
	dadisatish - 6/29/2012, 11:05 AM Login to report abuse i hav seen TASM.....frankly the film has got no surprises....it is just the same as the sam raimi spider man.....dragged a bit long....with different villain....mystery around peter's parents????frankly there is no big mystery....if ur wishing to see the same film of 2002 u can go and watch....if ur hoping for surprises and and all...well ull be disappointed.....wen i said its the same....i mean its the same....wen watched it ...its like teen comedy....drama dominates...its nt tat bad but not as gud as batman begins ....
	Philvis - 6/29/2012, 11:06 AM Login to report abuse I'm not knocking the Avengers, but it just didn't give me goosebumps like most everyone else on here. I don't discriminate between Marvel and DC movies, but just feel that the Marvel movies are missing something that takes them from really good to excellent or great movies. The Avengers just felt to formulatic to me, and while I know people will disagree with me because of Loki, I just didn't feel there was a proper "threat". Maybe my expectations of the Avengers were too high because of the super press about it on sites like these, but I felt it was just a good comic book movie...nothing fantastic. I think in terms of Marvel superheroes, I think Spiderman will do really well...probably better than any of the individual Marvel superhero movies. It took putting Thor, Captain America, Iron Man and Hulk together to create a super box office hit for Marvel, and I won't be surprised if Spiderman doesn't hit $400 million easily. The Dark Knight Rises will easily equal The Dark Knight numbers, but I don't think it will reach Avengers box office numbers. It will be the critical success story of comic book movies of the summer, while Avengers is the popcorn/fun success for comic book movies. Anyway you look at it, it's a great summer for comic book movies.
	coderaven - 6/29/2012, 11:06 AM Login to report abuse @0SageMode0 Mind passing me some of what you are smoking.
	SuperDan89 - 6/29/2012, 11:08 AM Login to report abuse @0SageMode0 - lol The day the tickets were released for TDKR led to every showing for the 20th July becoming sold out at my local IMAX, the only other film that came close was Avatar. We'll just have to wait and see
	OnLeatherWings - 6/29/2012, 11:13 AM Login to report abuse I get the feeling this.thread is going nowhere real fast
	bladenite78 - 6/29/2012, 11:18 AM Login to report abuse I still dont see how the Batman films arent formulaic..its..more realistic than real, darker than dark, deeper than deep..and madman takes over Gotham..thats it. You can add in all the little nuances of but omgz you just didnt get the plot and allegory between this and that..frankly I got it, I just didnt care. To me its so much more about how the city gets attacked and threatened that is should be called 'Gotham City' starring the Batman. I dont even like the Batman of these films..he's frankly kind of boring. I want the Batman from the comics, not a realistic version of a rich guy who has daddy issues. The whole idea of CBM's is that they are not human, they are more than human, to me this guy is a politician and its boring. I understand its high grossing and everyone loves it because its 'deep' and 'thought provoking', but I don't get that from it at all.
	MoonDoggyX - 6/29/2012, 11:22 AM Login to report abuse @Philvis - "I'm not knocking the Avengers, but it just didn't give me goosebumps like most everyone else on here. I don't discriminate between Marvel and DC movies, but just feel that the Marvel movies are missing something that takes them from really good to excellent or great movies." You are not alone, bud. With the exception of Iron Man 1 and TIH. Those movies blew my mind. It took me a while to put my thumb on it, but what Marvel's first 2 films have that all of their others(even the Avengers) lack is a strong ending. IM 2, the final fight was WAY too short. Thor, Loki was no match for Thor, he just laid his hammer in his chest. CA:TFA, the ending was pigeon holed to tie into the Avengers. The Avengers, we were invaded by an alien army and there was no "all is lost" moment. It was funny and entertaining, but not engrossing or threatening like it should have been...
	FilmsFan - 6/29/2012, 11:22 AM Login to report abuse Makes me laugh!! TDKR 400 million?!? It already has higher score in public interest than TDK... So how can its gross less! Ya only if it gets 0% on RT!! Otherwise 500-550 is a no brainer! & I'm being conservative! It's huge huge stuff... Don't underestimate: NOLAN & BATMAN. & IMAX isn't same for Avengers! Avengers was released in 270 ish! TDKR in 594 (Atleast 500 for sure)... & it's not same.
	ralfinader - 6/29/2012, 11:23 AM Login to report abuse I gotta think they under-estimated TDKR just like they did Avengers. I am going to guess closer to 500 mill domestic, with a total at about 1 billion when done. Spidey, I'll guess closer to 400 mill domestic, around 850 total. (I think it will do better than alot of other movies overseas, who don't love Spidey?)
	Jordanstine - 6/29/2012, 11:26 AM Login to report abuse Spidey will make around $350 million. TDKR will be around $500 million.
	Jordanstine - 6/29/2012, 11:26 AM Login to report abuse Spidey will make around $350 million. TDKR will be around $500 million. Speaking of both, reviews for Amazing Spider-Man basically calls it as the "Batman Begins" for the Spidey franchise. Good!
	Scabsallover - 6/29/2012, 11:30 AM Login to report abuse I personally know a lot of pep who don't want to see Spiderman but they were dying to see Avengers and now TDKR.
	HorrorBiz - 6/29/2012, 11:31 AM Login to report abuse "TDKR 1 hour of action shot leaves 1 hour and 45 minutes of talking could make this movie boring" Isn't that basically the same thing as The Avengers?
	nowtheresaBATman - 6/29/2012, 11:34 AM Login to report abuse I confirm IM53's comment(s) "my dad can beat your dad crap" lol
	REDSTORM - 6/29/2012, 11:34 AM Login to report abuse Yea I agree. If Batman dies in the movie, word will spread like wildfire. It will destroy its box office potential as parents would second guess taking their kids to see one of their favorite superheroes bite the bullet. I really hope Nolan was smarter than that.
	Tajin88 - 6/29/2012, 11:36 AM Login to report abuse AMC Theatres Adding Screens for The Dark Knight Trilogy and The Dark Knight Rises Due to Guest Demand AMC guests have purchased more than 23,000 advance tickets to The Dark Knight Trilogy, including more than 11,000 tickets sold to see the Trilogy in IMAX, accounting for multiple sold out shows in both IMAX and traditional formats. The advance tickets put The Dark Knight Trilogy on pace to shatter AMC's marathon-event record of more than 30,000 tickets to The Ultimate Marvel Marathon in May. In addition to the success of The Dark Knight Trilogy, AMC has sold more than 100,000 advance tickets for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, three weeks from the opening of the movie.
	SuperDan89 - 6/29/2012, 11:38 AM Login to report abuse @DoubleD - "IF BATMAN LIVES = 500 MILLION PLUS IF BATMAN DIES = 400 MILLION PLUS" Although I don't mind either way and I doubt it would make a difference but if it were less it would be: IF BATMAN DIES = 400 MILLION PLUS (and the big kids having admiration for Nolan having the balls to do it)
	Supes17 - 6/29/2012, 11:42 AM Login to report abuse
	thewonderer - 6/29/2012, 11:51 AM Login to report abuse I never understood why anyone would think TDKR would get below say $800,000 Inception made $825,000 and that was an original concept with the Nolan name alone along with an all star cast. TDKR has Nolans name, an all star cast, AND Batmans legacy to top it off.
	thewonderer - 6/29/2012, 11:52 AM Login to report abuse whoops 800,000,000 and 825,000,000 respectively
	thewolfx - 6/29/2012, 11:56 AM Login to report abuse niether will beat the avengers suckit -_-
	themann11 - 6/29/2012, 11:57 AM Login to report abuse $400 million seems like a low prediction to me for TDKR but whatever...TDKR is tracking to do $200 million OW I don't know if it will but if it does I see it topping out around $550-600 million domestic...time will tell.
	Maxi91291 - 6/29/2012, 12:13 PM Login to report abuse I know this is off topic but it has bats and spidey in it ... and it is kinda cute
	ULTIMOSPIDER - 6/29/2012, 12:26 PM Login to report abuse All you goofs saying how they are underestimating TDKR need to realize about 25% of the reason Dark Knight made so much was a lot to do with Ledgers death and his word of mouth brilliant oscar worthy performance.....so these predictions for Rises are about right ....Get off your high horses !!!...I do think Spider-man makes about $350 tho ...close to right.
	Durf - 6/29/2012, 12:28 PM Login to report abuse Although I think those estimates are a little low, they aren't bad. For TASM I see about 350-375 million domestic and 850-900 million total. For TDKR I see 525-575 domestic and somewhere between 1.1 and 1.2 billion total, although they could be less than that.
	THEDARKKNIGHT1939 - 6/29/2012, 12:50 PM Login to report abuse Who gives a shit about the money, what matters is if we will enjoy the movie or not.
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