It appears China is finally willing to give Marvel Studios another chance because Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania have both secured release dates in the Middle Kingdom. It's been three and a half years since an MCU movie was allowed to play in theaters in the country so this is a very big deal.
The Black Panther sequel may not find a huge audience there because it isn't coming out until February 7, a week after its Disney+ across the rest of the world. As a result, piracy is bound to be an issue, though we can't help but wonder whether this release will be enough to push it from $835 million to somewhere near that all-important $1 billion mark.
As for the next Ant-Man movie, it's arriving in China the same day as the rest of the world: February 17. That's fantastic news for Peyton Reed's threequel and could help push the Avengers-level event to $1 billion with relative ease.
For proof of that, look no further than Avatar: The Way of Water, a movie that's earned over $220 million in the country.
So, why are these MCU movies the first to be released in China since 2019's Spider-Man: Far From Home? Well, with the Chinese Communist Party celebrating its 100th anniversary and holding 20th National Congress, it's thought there was a lot of fear about releasing Marvel movies at a time when there was so much uncertainty within the country. No one wanted to upset their superiors, and it appears Hollywood blockbusters were at risk of doing so given the cultural differences.
Marvel Studios has lost a lot of money since 2019 (it may top $1 billion given how busy Phase 4 was), and for an idea of how these sequels may perform, look no further than Ant-Man and The Wasp ($121 million) and Black Panther ($105 million) in 2018.
Will Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels follow? That remains to be seen.
Stay tuned for updates.
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