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2013 CBM Box Office Predictions

After an incredible year at the box office for comic book movies of all kind, it's now time to look forward to the great selection of CBMs that will be hitting screens in 2013. Check out my article, predicting how I think each big CBM will do at the box office next year by clicking ahead.

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By TheSkywalkingKnight - 9/3/2012
This year, with the release of The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises, box office records were broken all across the world and comic fans rejoiced as they were treated to three critically acclaimed blockbusters that all flew past the $500M barrier at the box office, as well as the $1 billion barrier for The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises. So, now we look forward to the future comic book movies that will be hitting screens next year. In this article, I'm going to lay down my box office predictions for Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, The Wolverine and Thor: The Dark World. I also encourage you all to list your predictions in the comments section below.

Iron Man 3 (May 3rd)



Opening Weekend: $160M
Worldwide Total: $850M


What It Has Going For It: After the phenomenal success of Marvel's The Avengers, the solo characters in the team have a new found popularity in the public eye. Of course, the first two films in the Iron Man franchise were also huge money makers, but nothing like The Avengers. I'm predicting The Avengers' success to propel a worldwide total of $850M for the threequel, which is $200M more than Iron Man 2's total. Another thing the third Iron Man film directed by Shane Black has going for it is that the film will begin the summer movie season, just like The Avengers did this past May. If you look back at the opening weekend totals for films that launched in the first weekend of May, you will see that these films bring in big bucks so it was very smart of Marvel to secure the May 3rd spot. The star power of Robert Downey Jr. alone gives any film he stars in a tremendous chance of being successful, as he is one of the most popular actors around. I'm predicting a $160M opening for the film, which is $40M more than Iron Man 2's opening total.

What It Has Going Against It: Like all the films here, Iron Man 3 could bring in either good or bad word of mouth, if it attracts the latter, it will not be good for IM3 or any of these films. The film will probably stay in the top spot at the box office until May 17th, when Star Trek 2 arrives in cinemas, which is will likely de-throne the film from the top stop, unless Tyler Perry does that on May 10th, which is doubtful.


Man Of Steel (June 14th)



Opening Weekend: $110M
Worldwide Total: $550M


What It Has Going For It: It's Superman! The ultimate superhero, everybody knows his name, he's a guaranteed money maker, especially when the movies he is in are actually good, so let's first hope Man of Steel is good, because it is a risk for WB to bring the character back to the big screen after the disappointment that was Superman Returns. One thing on the film's side is that the marketing for the film (the teaser and SDCC trailer at least) puts some focus on Christopher Nolan and his The Dark Knight Trilogy, after two films in that trilogy reaching the $1B mark, the mention of Nolan (who is a producer on the flick) and his CBM trilogy is sure to attract some audiences. Man of Steel is also rumored to be released in IMAX and 3D, so raised ticket prices will help the flick earn more than 2D sales, like all 3D flicks.

What It Has Going Against It: Now, many of you are probably shocked by my low predictions, but bear in mind that Man of Steel is a reboot. Batman Begins, while succesful wasn't anywhere close to the success of The Dark Knight and earlier this year, everybody was predicting The Amazing Spider-Man to make $1B, now that figure seems unlikely to happen and the film looks to be the lowest grossing Spider-Man film to date. After the disappointing box office total for Superman Returns, audiences won't be too keen to see a Superman movie straight away. The film won't have much competition on opening weekend, so the #1 spot is expected, but for Week 2, Pixar's Monsters University hits US theaters, which will likely take the #1 spot from the flick. And then there is the question of, is Superman still relevant on film? We will have to wait and see on that one. Unless the film gets incredibly good word of mouth like The Avengers or The Dark Knight, I can only see MOS just breaking the $500M barrier, at best, because of he is one of the most popular Superheroes after all.


The Wolverine (July 26th)



Opening Weekend: $55M
Worldwide Total: $400M


What It Has Going For It: The star power of Hugh Jackman and the character of Wolverine being so popular will definitely bode in the film's favor plus it should make big bucks over in Japan since the story is set there. But asides from that, not much I'm afraid.

What It Has Going Against It: Poor word of mouth stopped X-Men Origins: Wolverine from being the huge money maker FOX was hoping for. So, hopefully The Wolverine can actually be good this time. But, a question I would like to ask is, are audiences sick of Wolverine? This will be the fifth time the character has been the focus of an X-Men movie and maybe audiences don't want to see the character once again. Though, the latest X-Men film, X-Men: First Class made less money than Origins and First Class was the far superior film, so maybe people are not sick of the character. I do think the film will be a success for FOX if it is good or bad, but I also think audiences don't care for the X-Men films as much anymore thanks to the poor X-Men: The Last Stand and the aforementioned Origins film. There is no word yet on wheter or not The Wolverine will be in 3D, but given recent FOX blockbusters not being in the format, I'm going to say it won't be in 3D, which will hurt the film.


Thor: The Dark World (November 8th)



Opening Weekend: $95M
Worldwide Total: $620M


What It Has Going For It: Like I said with Iron Man 3, the success of The Avengers has made the the characters on the team even more popular, and after the success of the first Thor movie ($450M worldwide), a big opening is expected for the Alan Taylor-directed sequel. I'm going to go with $95M, which is $30M more than the first Thor film's opening. There isn't too much to say in the film's favor because a lot of what applies for Iron Man 3 applies here.

What It Has Going Against It: While Iron Man 3 will probably have two weeks at the top spot, Thor: The Dark World will definitely lose the top spot to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire in it's second weekend, that film is expected to have a huge opening, this could mean a serious drop for the fantasy epic which is not good news. Also, Disney's Frozen hits theaters two weeks after the second Thor film's release, which means another possible drop for the film. Hopefully, if the film is good, it will have strong legs against the competition. I predict Thor: The Dark World will make around $620M, in the same region of Iron Man 2's total gross back in 2010.

So there's my predictions for the big Comic Book Movies next year, I hope you enjoyed this read and be sure to list your own predictions in the comments area below! But just remember this list was just for fun, in the end we all win, remember that everybody and be respectful in the comments.


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BattlinMurdock - 9/3/2012, 5:44 PM
Thor does seems very, very high...
nailbiter111 - 9/3/2012, 5:44 PM
I'd say your Man of Steel prediction is WAY too low, on both accounts. Opening will be probably closer to 120M.
nailbiter111 - 9/3/2012, 5:45 PM
Thor opening seems high, I'd say 80 to 85M at best. IM3 is too high, I'd say 110 to 120M. Wolverine opening is probably close, but a tad low, maybe i'd bump it to 60 to 65M.
TheSkywalkingKnight - 9/3/2012, 5:53 PM
Hmm, yeah, my opening predictions aren't the best but you never know. I tweaked the Thor one and the MOS one. I think what I have to say about each film is a bit more important than my wild predictions.
JDUKE25 - 9/3/2012, 6:00 PM
Im3: $800 million
MoS: $750 million
Thor2: $700 million
Wolv: $550 million
JDUKE25 - 9/3/2012, 6:02 PM
Wouldn't be surprised if Iron Man got to a billion,(if the story is better than 2). Same for Man of Steel, depends on the story and action, but could close in on a billion.

But these are just grounded, realistic predictions for me above.
marvel72 - 9/3/2012, 6:03 PM
not gonna try predict anything until i see the trailers,i made three predictions this year & they were all wrong.

i believe iron man 3 & thor the dark world will do well on the strength of previous films & the avengers.

man of steel & the wolverine are hard to predict,maybe $500,000,000 each.
indigobolt956 - 9/3/2012, 6:04 PM
ya i think man of steel may bring in the most then iron man 3 then thor tdw then the wolverine the last wolverine movie left a bad taste in folks mouths ill go see it but the general public im not sure hope its good though
SteveRogersSon - 9/3/2012, 6:19 PM
Well I do hope all the movies well..but I'm calling
IM3

Man of Steel (NOlan free)

Hunger Games

Thor


and whatever crap Fox throws out..
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:20 PM
My predictions:

IM3 - $850Mil
Third part of a successful solo franchise, Avengers should help considering IM is MCU's flagship character. The buzz is high for it (from the Twitter/Facebook data someone posted here after SDCC). And if nothing else, international audiences adore long running big franchises, and it should rake in big international at least. Domestically, people may suffer from IM fatigue with 4 films featuring IM within 5 years of each other. But again, international audiences will help.

MOS - $850Mil (Or $550Mil, hear me out)
If everything goes well, if the film's good (Nolan's script and Snyder's direction work together as well as they should, on paper), the marketing is heavy enough etc. Then this film will rake in the cash Domestic and International based on name recognizability and trailers which indicate that this is finally a Superman movie that will do justice to the character. In terms of character depth and action. However my second prediction is based on the marketing going wrong. WB seems to have the idea that Returns failed because people don't connect with Supes in today's day and age. Whereas a more accurate account of it's failure would be that people were very excited for it, but the movie sucked/bored, and poor word of mouth killed it eventually. Now 6 years later WB is releasing teasers showing a Superman (or rather, Hobo-man) that broods all the time, which might misfire and bring back negative memories of the first film. I remember at my screening of TDKR. Dead silence of apathy after the teaser aired. Now again, it's just a teaser, the main trailer and marketing might show a bit more of the exciting side of things. But I'm slowly losing confidence considering how EVERYONE involved (Cavill, Snyder, Nolan) keeps trying to hammer in that fact. And that might just hurt the very important marketing approach.

Wolvie - $300Mil
The excitement is dead for this franchise. There was once a time when people used to jizz their pants at just the mention of Wolverine. But that's changed after XM3 sucked, Wolvie sucked, and XMFC (although a brilliant film) featured less exciting members of X-Men. The apathy hurt XMFC, and I know it will hurt this too. So, I say it'll do ok, but not much more than that.

Thor 2 - $550Mil
Thor was a success, Avengers further boosted Thor' popularity, the film itself will explore more exciting areas of the Thor mythology. I would've predicted $650Mil had it not been for Hunger Games 2 coming out almost immediately after. And it is a fact, that most of the under 18 audience will be going in droves to see Hunger Games 2 instead of this. And that will hurt a bit. I initially thought it could be devastating, but then I remembered the apathy that the first Hunger Games was met with internationally, which is a big factor that could help Thor flourish.
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:21 PM
[frick] it. I change my prediction for IM3 to $900Mil provided the movie itself is good, and word of mouth elevates it over IM2's.
TheLoveDoc - 9/3/2012, 6:21 PM
Iron Man will have far less than a 160 mil opening weekedn. Also, Superman will have a much higher worldwide total, I'd put it over 800 mil.
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:30 PM
@starscream9289
Uhhh... no. Not everyone though TDKR was gonna beat Avengers. And that's because it never was going to. What people forget is that when it comes to big movies, it's not just about how good or bad something is. According to tracking, Avengers was appealing to all four quadrants. For TDKR it was mainly adult males. This wide-appeal, combined with the fact that it was a very good and REWATCHABLE movie made it inevitable that Avengers was going to gross more. Especially considering how TDKR has met with a disappointed/mixed reception, doesn't have a wide appeal, isn't really rewatchable for most people, and is ass-numbingly long (LOTR flourished despite this, but it had EVERYTHING else going for it, and those films were a bit of an event that TDKR was not).
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:34 PM
Oh and I totally forgot to mention the advantage of the 3D surcharge that Avengers had & TDKR did not.

Anyone who seriously thought TDKR was going to outgross the Avengers (mainly after Avengers was done breaking all sorts of records) was deluding themselves.

Now calm yourselves down people (mainly Nolanites), I haven't said which movie was better worse. I have just stated the facts.

Wide Appeal
Running Time
Rewatchability
3D surcharge
(and eventually even Critical Reception)

Even before the shooting occured, the film was never actually going to surpass Avengers' mammoth $1.5Billion gross.
SteveRogersSon - 9/3/2012, 6:44 PM
OH God..the 3D excuse...that's about as old as the images Irish posts in Chat in the wee hours of the morning. LOL
CoolantTech - 9/3/2012, 6:49 PM
My predictions are:

1)Ironman 3 $850mil-$1bil
2)MoS $600mil-$800mil
3)The Wolverine $450mil-$650mil
4)Thor TDW $650mil-$850mil
TheGambitFreakIsBatmanOfCBM - 9/3/2012, 6:51 PM
"Whore Face"....







"Awwww... Look at little Goblin Jr.... Wanna Cry?"
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:54 PM
@starscream9289

dude, I stated 3D as ONE of the many advantages. 3D alone wasn't the reason Avengers made 150% the money TDKR did. 3D HELPED, sure. But let's not get carried away.
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:55 PM
LMFAO@Gambit with the abrupt liefeld picture at the end.
lokibane2012 - 9/3/2012, 6:57 PM
@starscream9289
SteveRogersSon - 9/3/2012, 6:58 PM
Yoss...people will grasp for anything to justify that one movie made more than another.


Hey remember when Irish....
GoILL - 9/3/2012, 7:03 PM
Good stuff Irish, I think your predictions were pretty good maybe off by a few million but still pretty good. Great stuff Gambit on the pics.
SteveRogersSon - 9/3/2012, 7:14 PM
THAT JUST HAPPENED...YOSS just made a little Shake n Bake on Starscream
Tainted87 - 9/3/2012, 7:29 PM
Man of Steel is going to ANNIHILATE Thor, regardless of Superman Returns and Avengers. Thor just isn't THAT popular, although clearly, Hemsworth has reached stardom among younger audiences.

The only close one here is probably Wolverine, IF the trailer is exciting.
CharlesTheIncredible - 9/3/2012, 7:51 PM
yea im not gonna predict anything until i see trailers
Lego - 9/3/2012, 8:14 PM
55 million for Wolverine on OW? lmaoo
THEDARKKNIGHT1939 - 9/3/2012, 8:16 PM
I am not really good at predicting box office so I can't really say anything here Lol
jimpinto24 - 9/3/2012, 8:24 PM
IM3-$400 million
Man of Steel-$500 million
The Wolverine-$35-$50 million
Thor:TDW-$300 million
ATrueHero1987 - 9/3/2012, 8:25 PM
Idk why people thought TASM would make a billion. Anyway, I agree with most of your predictions.
SmellofDuty - 9/3/2012, 8:31 PM
@gambitFreak Leanna Decker is sooooooooo hot. :D Lawlz...
aztecRaingod - 9/3/2012, 8:32 PM
That certainly is high for Thor, but like all of the other successful CBM's, it certainly can make alot IF its a good movie.

I think Thor2 has the potential to be better than the first, so it has a chance of meeting your predicted totals.
StormLoganSummers - 9/3/2012, 8:35 PM
These sound good to me.
aztecRaingod - 9/3/2012, 8:35 PM
I am kind of iffy on Superman. The teaser trailer was nothing short of boring and depressing, they should have released the real trailer which was seen at this years comicon, I hear it was good.


I think Superman will do Ok,merely on the strength of the Iconic Character,But only the quality of the movie will determine if its going to do very well.
aztecRaingod - 9/3/2012, 8:38 PM
I am somewhat worried about IM3. There are at least 3 different rumored villains, it has the potential to make for a cluttered movie.

But IM3, like Superman, will do well no matter what, now that its a very established franchise. Though I think your totals are a little too high.
Ranger14 - 9/3/2012, 8:38 PM
"Everyone was saying TDKR was gonna beat the Avengers, then the shootings happened and no one wanted to go to the movies anymore."

Well, the Nolan fans thought that TDKR was gonna beat The Avengers and if I am not mistaken, TDKR broke a $1 billion this week. How do you break a billion $ if no one wanted to go the movies anymore?

I expect I3 and Thor 2 to make more at the box office due to the added exposure from The Avengers. People now understand the MCU is tied together now between the individual films and The Avengers, so they should do better. MOS is a crap shoot. SR didn't hit $400 million and I think people are a little leery about seeing a great Superman film hitting the big screen any time soon. Some of the main complaints about TASM from critics and average viewers is that it rehashed the origin story again and that could be the downfall of MOS as well, especially being they are using a repeat villain.
MisterMagurlypse - 9/3/2012, 8:41 PM
The thing that helped Avengers was the word of mouth, and the word was HULK. Hulk isn't in IM3 or Thor 2, but it helped mainstream moviegoers get to know Thor and Iron Man better. RDJ can sell a movie, that's a fact. Hemisworth on the other hand won't be as convincing. But, Taylors vision of Thor will be the driving force in the movies success. MOS is going to win the summer hands down. Wolverine will do OK, but nothing spectacular.
aztecRaingod - 9/3/2012, 8:42 PM
Ranger, someone should tell all the moviegoers that TASM is a boring rehashing of Spidermans origin. Its already over 700 million worldwide.
GarthRanzz - 9/3/2012, 8:52 PM
Talking TDKR gross versus Avengers....a ton more 8 to 10 year holds were in the theater for Avengers than. TDKR. I think this is overlooked. I also think the unlikability of IM 2 will effect Iron Man 3 as much as Returns effects MOS. I think Wolvie will draw more than predicted.
cgriffith - 9/3/2012, 8:57 PM
I believe "Man of Steel" will carry the summer in fact I predict it will gross world wide over 900 million.

The reasons:

1. The iconic superhero getting a super makeover.
2. DC/National COmics knows if they want a Justice League "EVERYTHING" hinges on this movie.
3. As Joss Wheldon and action is to Disney/Marvel, Snyder is to DC/WB
4. Christopher Nolan (in and form attached to any CBM is cash) ...nuff said.
5. The attention this movie will get my next Summer this will be the most anticapted movie release, add whatever Super Bowl spot, and the massive marketing it will have failure will not be an option.
6. A fresh take on the origin of the most recognizable comic book figure ever.

The others:

Star Trek 2 - $750m plus worldwide
Iron Man 3 - $600m plus worldwide
Thor - $420m worldwide
Wolverine - $270m worldwide
Ranger14 - 9/3/2012, 8:59 PM
aztec@ Where did I say it was boring? I didn't say it didn't draw people, I stated what some of the common complaints by critics and viewers was. Two separate issues. Considering Spiderman has been a better draw in the theaters than Superman (yes, we have only had one Superman film in recent time to compare it to), then that common issue could affect the MOS numbers from drawing much better than what SR did. My opinion and speculation on the matter. Nothing more...nothing less.
Ryguy88 - 9/3/2012, 9:01 PM
If Man of Steel turns out to be a very good movie that also caters to the average movie goer it'll make the most money out of these. I think it could crack $800M via $300M domestic and $500M international.

Also, after Iron Man 1 and 2 hovered around $600M WW each why will Iron Man 3 all of a sudden jump to $850M? My guess is the 3D will bring the numbers up to around $650, but actual ticket sales will be a bit down.

Likewise with Thor, $450M for the first one, why is the second one gonna make Iron Man type numbers? $500M should be its absolute peak.

Wolverine is the most difficult one to predict, $400M is fair but it depends on how good the movie is and how it plays to the audience. $500M is the max but I doubt it will get there, coming off of a movie as loathed as Origins doesn't help anyone.
Maximus101 - 9/3/2012, 9:02 PM
@saintspidey you say the $3 3d and the $5 IMAX thing but you do realize the avengers played in the IMAX as well right? Lol the avengers had 2D, 3D and IMAX where as TDKR had 2D and IMAX. Know your facts before your start with that none sense.
Darkhaven - 9/3/2012, 9:04 PM
Irish, I think that your predictions are pretty much spot on, with one exception. I think that the numbers on Thor and Iron Man should be switched around.

Iron Man has more than enough fuel of his own, and the Avengers boosted the hell out that. But, lots of people are wary of "the third film curse", so Iron Man 3 better have good word of mouth to buck the stigma. Thor, on the other hand, has the Avengers heat going for it, AND a healthy following of fangirls for both Thor and Loki.

I can see Man of Steel just breaking the 500mil mark, even with good word of mouth. He's got to overcome Superman Returns, 19 years of absence from the theater, Superman 3 AND Superman 4. That's a bunch of kryptonite.
Maximus101 - 9/3/2012, 9:05 PM
Who knows about the predictions, the box office is random these days. It will come down to ord if mouth after the movies come out.

My predictions on quality

1) man of steel
2) ironman 3
3) Thor
4) wolverine
Cocol0ssal - 9/3/2012, 9:05 PM
Gotta agree on The Wolverine. Hugely over-rated Hugh Jackman taking on ninjas, katanas and samurai? Could very easily turn in to just another martial arts actioner and we know how much the average movie goer loves them.
Ultimatespideyfan - 9/3/2012, 9:06 PM
Hahaha, I agree with Iron Man 3. It will probably reach the same amount of money that TDKR made on first weekend, maybe even surpass it. Anyway, I think Thor 2 may not reach that amount because it's not a summer film, but it's stick to maybe 80 million. As for Wolverine, hopefully it'll reach 60 million at least. And MoS is indeed a reboot, and I bet it won't be as profitable as The Amazing Spider-Man. Maybe 250 on US and 500 worldwide.
Ryguy88 - 9/3/2012, 9:06 PM
Ranger, a movie can still make a billion despite losing viewers, I'm not saying TDKR did, although it likely lost $20M or so opening weekend in the US but there is no way to prove it was any more than that. TDKR has preformed as expected, The Avengers preformed beyond expectations. You should know that it was more than just Nolan fans that expected TDKR to beat The Avengers but it didn't so congrats, or whatever.
Ranger14 - 9/3/2012, 9:19 PM
Ryguy@ I understand, I just don't think in the long run it affected the sales. Why congratulate me on how well The Avengers did? I just made an observation about those that that thought TDKR would beat The Avengers based on what I have observed on this site.

I am going to predict MOS will make around $500-550 million.
Ryguy88 - 9/3/2012, 9:19 PM
Darkhaven, Thor was no better a movie than Superman Returns, and it took in less money at the box office too. You Marvel fans are hilarious! Thor closing in on a billion is laughable! And don't you think that Superman 3 and 4 are irrelevant at this point? I mean, its been 20 years! Time will tell though.
Ryguy88 - 9/3/2012, 9:23 PM
Ranger, The Avengers won the BO race on its own remarkable run that no one predicted (except maybe these crazy fanboys that think Thor will make $850M, they are bound to be right once in a while) TDKR preformed where everyone thought it would; slightly less domestically than TDK, slightly more world wide.
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