There’s been a lot of discussion about the casting of Robert Redford in Captain America: The Winter Soldier. At first, Redford was simply described as a high-ranking S.H.I.E.L.D. official. Recent interviews with Redford have clarified that the veteran actor will in fact be playing the head of S.H.I.E.L.D. This news has led to a number of different theories.
Some have argued that he will portray Samuel L. Jackson's previously unmentioned boss, some have suggested that he will play an aging wartime acquaintance of Captain America, and some have even pointed out the possibility that he could be playing the original (non-ultimate) Nick Fury. To me, there is a much simpler explanation that, if true, sheds light on Marvel's phase 2 plans: Nick Fury has been demoted and possibly disavowed.
At the end of The Avengers Nick Fury is seen disobeying a direct order from his superiors, the World Security Council. When they order a nuclear strike on New York City, he ignores it, "given that it's a stupid-ass decision." This stand, if not successful, would likely have been viewed as simple treason; even as a success, it is certainly insubordination. In the brief remainder of the movie, we do not see the political fallout for Fury. But in any military organization such behavior would not go undisciplined.
The alternate opening featuring Maria Hill's interrogation further suggests that Fury will not get off scot free:
Male Interrogator: A lot of people are dead . . . somebody has to answer for that.
Hill: A lot of people have to answer for that.
Female Interrogator: Nick Fury?
In the wake of the destruction caused by the invasion, Fury would make a convenient scapegoat, and his disrespectful disobedience would simply give the World Security Council another reason to want to make an example of the man. But if Fury is removed as director, someone will have to fill his shoes, and that man, it would seem, is Robert Redford.
Now, given the assumption that Fury is disavowed or at the very least replaced as a result of The Avengers, what does that mean for Phase 2? To start with, we have been told over and over again that Iron Man 3 will be a solo movie. Feige and Black have expressed interest in "taking Tony back to the cave," putting him through the ringer, making him absolutely alone. Recent trailers have shown the Mandarin as a world-class terrorist, capable even of coordinating strikes against Air Force One. This has left many people wondering, "Why doesn't S.H.I.E.L.D. stop the Mandarin?"
One very plausible answer is that they cannot. Supposing that Fury is being censured for the events of the Battle of New York and that a new replacement is being sought, it is possible that S.H.I.E.L.D.'s organization is simply too disorganized to effectively hunt a terrorist as skilled as the Mandarin.
Also, if the formation of The Avengers is part of why Fury was demoted in the first place, it is possible that new S.H.I.E.L.D. leadership would want to distance themselves as much from Stark as possible. One can easily imagine a scene where Stark, finding himself over his head, decides to bury his pride and call S.H.I.E.L.D. Asking for Director Fury, he is simply told, "He doesn't work here anymore."
From a storytelling, thematic standpoint, it is obvious why Stark needs to fight and win by himself. But Fury's punishment could help to explain in plot terms why Tony Stark has to face his demons and fight his greatest enemies alone, and without a safety net.
But Fury's demotion has ramifications for more than just Iron Man 3. Samuel L. Jackson has confirmed that his next Marvel appearance will be in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and Fury's fate is definitely tied to that movie as well. It is interesting to note that throughout the comics, Fury has cycled through being head of S.H.I.E.L.D. and being on the lam a number of times. One notable time when he is NOT head of S.H.I.E.L.D. is during the events of the death of Captain America. Although it seems very unlikely that they are planning a death of Captain America storyline in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, it is interesting to note that a number of the prominent characters in that story arc (The Winter Soldier, Cross-Bones, and The Falcon) are being introduced, and it's possible that Marvel is gearing up in preparation for tackling the story of Steve Roger's (apparent) death.
Recently two interesting pieces of concept art have been released. One involves Captain America and the Winter Soldier fighting, and the other seems to show Captain America in the middle of a showdown with the Quinjet. Fury's post-Avengers fate doesn't directly tell us anything about these, but it does allow for some interesting speculation.
In the first picture, Steve Rogers is seen fighting in civilian attire. This could suggest a couple of things. One is that the Winter Soldier is actively being sent to target Rogers. Another intriguing possibility is that Rogers is out of uniform because he has temporarily or permanently cut ties with S.H.I.E.L.D.
Although Fury and Cap didn't have the smoothest of relationships in The Avengers, one could easily imagine Cap's relationship with Fury's replacement being even more turbulent, especially given that from a narrative standpoint, Redford's character stands a very good chance of being either misguided or actively evil.
The picture of Captain America taking on the Quinjet also raises interesting questions. Given that the Quinjet is seen in The Avengers as the property S.H.I.E.L.D. in The Avengers, it is quite likely that this picture could point to an infiltration of S.H.I.E.L.D., and it seems by no means unlikely that Redford's character could, wittingly or not, be the cause of this.
But even if Fury is temporarily disavowed, you can be sure that he will be working from the shadows in true comic book form, and you can also be sure that he will eventually make his return as director of S.H.I.E.L.D.